UK Manufacturing – no rebalancing, a hit and run victim regains consciousness

Posted on May 14, 2011 by John Ashcroft

The manufacturing figures for March were released this week. After growth of 6.6% in January and 5.0% in February manufacturing growth was just 2.7% in March. In the month capital goods and engineering were up 7%, metal bashers were up by 4% but consumer durables were down by 3%. So is the manufacturing miracle over? What will happen to growth this year? Let’s face it, the growth in manufacturing is not evidence or a “rebalancing” of the economy, it is more like evidence of a hit and run victim regaining consciousness. It’s a recovery not a manufacturing miracle.
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No signs of double dip at the Trafford Centre Manchester

Posted on June 18, 2010 by

Our 15 per cent increase reflected a consistent performance throughout the week. Johnlewis.com led the way with a 33 per cent increase, but it was Trafford (+22 per cent) that claimed the top spot for shops along with some stunning results from the southeast heavyweights such as Oxford Street, Peter Jones and Bluewater.
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UK Economy on track for recovery according to latest ONS data.

Posted on May 25, 2010 by

According to latest data from the Office of National Statistics, the UK economiy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter, up from an initial estimate of 0.2 per cent, slightly slower than the 0.4pc in the fourth quarter of 2009. What does this actually mean? The figures are in line with a recovery pattern suggesting the UK will emerge from recession in the second quarter of 2010 based on a technical year on year quarter growth definition.
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Retail Sales in April up by 3.1% – so far so good.

Posted on May 20, 2010 by

Retail sales in April were up by 3.1% in volume terms compared to prior year and up by 4.2% in value according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics. After the white out in January, retail sales over the last three months have averaged 3.4% volume growth.
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Recession – what shape are we in? April 2010

Posted on April 24, 2010 by John Ashcroft

This week the preliminary estimate of GDP in Q1 was released by the Office of National Statistics. The numbers indicated a decline year on year of just 0.3%, this after a fall of 5.9% in the second quarter of 2009.
So what shape are we in, well it’s a pretty conventional broad V with no sign of a W.
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Recession – what shape are we in?

Posted on April 24, 2010 by

This week the preliminary estimate of GDP in Q1 was released by the Office of National Statistics. The numbers indicated a decline year on year of just 0.3%, this after a fall of 5.9% in the second quarter of 2009. So what shape are we in, well it’s a pretty conventional broad V with no sign of a W.
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Prospects for the US economy – in a deep U shaped recession

Posted on July 17, 2009 by John Ashcroft

The USA is in a long and protracted U shaped recession according to Nouriel Roubini Professor of Economics and Stern School of Business at NYU and Chairman of RGE Monitor. Roubini outlines the prospects for recovery by the end of the year and the risk of a W shaped recession for the US economy.
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CBI June forecasts – no real recovery until 2010

Posted on June 15, 2009 by John Ashcroft

The CBI economic forecasts June, restore a little sanity to the debate on prospects for the UK economy – forecasting no real recovery until 2010. Following the release of the NIESR GDP data last week, The Telegraph claimed “The British … Read More

NIESR – UK GDP May, no recovery, no revival, no green shoots

Posted on June 11, 2009 by John Ashcroft

The excellent NIESR GDP fast track figures were released this week but the press release once again, is misleading. “Economic stabilisation confirmed, March – the trough of the depression, output is rising in April and May.” The press coverage was … Read More

UK Manufacturing down 12.7% in April – green shoots?

Posted on June 10, 2009 by John Ashcroft

Manufacturing output in May fell by 12.7% compared to prior year. This is better than in March when output fell by 13.1% and in the first quarter of the year when output fell by 13.4%. Things are getting worse but … Read More

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