Tag Archives: GDP

Sunday Times and Croissants – CEO’s update 31st July

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Joe Grice Chief Economist of the ONS is beginning to sound like a sales director missing targets and clinging to any excuse of failure to get results. The second quarter figure had been hit April’s warm weather, the extra bank holiday and the Japanese Tsunami. Joe has previously said, in the final quarter of 2010, there was too much snow and in the first quarter 2011 not enough snow. Thank heavens it didn’t snow on the day of the Royal Wedding. More BS logic but David Smith bought in!
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pro.manchester economics review Q1 – rebalancing the economy or dans la flotte?

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The pro.manchester outlook is slightly contrarian. The review is produced on the basis that growth in the current year will be ahead of expectations at 2.6%, inflation will be around 3.6% by the end of the year but will not fall to target thereafter. Government borrowing will fall faster than the consensus forecast but there will be no improvement in the current account as outlined.
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The FTSE set to rise higher but what of interest rates in the UK ..

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Equity markets around the world have rallied from the lows of 2009 offering 60% gains for bottom feeders brave enough to take stock. The FTSE World Wide index now stands within 25% of the 2008 peak. In developing markets, the gains had been even higher, rallying from a low of 160 to around 340 according to the FTSE index, with the market now ready to test the 2007 high of 360. Markets had been supported by a strong growth in corporate earnings and a period of low interest rates. In the UK we expect above forecast growth, with inflation remaining a challenge to policy in 2011. As for base rates, the market consensus is for rates to end the year at 1.25%. If GDP growth is as high as we anticipate in the first quarter of the year, the shocking inflation figures could force the Bank of England to act earlier. Rates could begin the rise as early as April or May pushing beyond 200 basis points by year end.
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pro.manchester Brewin Dolphin calls the FTSE higher but what of interest rates…

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Equity markets around the world had rallied from the lows of 2009 offering 60% gains for bottom feeders. The Brewin Dolphin forecast for the FTSE end of 2011 is 6,450, that’s an eight per cent rise from current levels. 6,450 is a good call, with the market set to test the 6,500 high before the end of the year. As for base rates, Brewin Dolphin is calling a 50 basis point rise in two steps in the second half of the year. The market consensus is for rates to end the year at 1.25%. If GDP growth is as high as we anticipate in the first quarter of the year, the shocking inflation figures could force the Bank of England to act earlier. Rates could begin the rise as early as April or May pushing beyond 200 basis points by year end.
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UK GDP – it’s the wrong kind of snow, at the wrong time of year

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The ONS estimates for GDP growth came as something of a surprise for the final quarter of 2010 with q on q growth down by 0.5%. Even more disturbing was the sight of the Chancellor of the Exchequer explaining how snow had derailed the economic recovery in the final month of the year.
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UK Growth will be stronger than expected in 2011 and private sector will create jobs.

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GROSS domestic product will be stronger than expected in 2011 and the private sector is set to create the job growth to offset spending cuts.
Every one percent growth in GDP will lead to the creation of around 100,000 jobs according to the research and growth should be above trend in the recovery process.

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UK GDP data Q1 suggest it’s recovery with a V!

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According to latest data from the Office of National Statistics, the UK economy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter, up from an initial estimate of 0.2 per cent, slightly slower than the 0.4pc in the fourth quarter of 2009. What does this actually mean? The figures are in line with a recovery pattern suggesting the UK will emerge from recession in the second quarter of 2010 based on a technical year on year quarter growth definition.
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UK Economy on track for recovery according to latest ONS data.

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According to latest data from the Office of National Statistics, the UK economiy grew by 0.3% in the first quarter, up from an initial estimate of 0.2 per cent, slightly slower than the 0.4pc in the fourth quarter of 2009. What does this actually mean? The figures are in line with a recovery pattern suggesting the UK will emerge from recession in the second quarter of 2010 based on a technical year on year quarter growth definition.
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