There is something special about Sunday morning, the Sunday Times, hot croissants with honey and butter, excellent.
Headlines, Bishops-at-war-with-coalition over welfare reforms. Ian Duncan Smith the self anointed pointy headed minister is trying to push a payment cap to households past peers in the House of Lords. It will not be easy.
The good news about a war with the bishops is an aircraft carrier is not required for victory. The bad news, the high moral ground is more difficult to take.
More difficult in fact than the Falklands without an aircraft carrier as the article on page 17 explains. Can we still defend the Falklands – not if we point out the ideal Trojan subterfuge by way of strategy guideline in the first paragraph.
David Smith, takes a pop at Jonathan Portes from NIESR. Jonathan had blogged the low level of gilt yields are a sign of economic failure not success. Low long-term interest rates appear to reflect economic weakness and lack of market confidence in the prospects of the UK economy, not the reverse, he argues.
DS finds this puzzling, suggesting low rates reflect government credibility and will reduce the debt payments in a difficult economic climate.
Maybe but low yields will ensure the debt payable on new issues will be lower – not the debt already in issue. The average coupon on the trillion pound conventional gilts in issue is 4.5%. The interest bill this year will be reflect this with interest of £25 billion paid in the first six months of the year.
As for low yields, QE is forcing gilt prices up and yields down. There is some evidence of foreign buying but the old lady has a big handbag buying up thirty per cent of total stock, distorting the yield curve and hitting savers and pension funds in the process.
My money is with the British/American. Jonathan will be with pro.manchester for a special lunch in March.
Economics news this week, unemployment up, inflation down and retail sales were higher in December than expected. More details from the The Saturday Economist 21st January 2012t.
Back to the day job, Monday internal meetings – we make progress with SME club and the Business Conference in March. Have you bought your tickets yet? Do so this month and get a free copy of Jim O’Neil’s book – The Growth Map. Discover the next bog thing.
Tuesday morning begins with a meeting of the Business Leadership Council. Good meeting as the working groups report back on a variety of subjects. Great interest in the AGMA efficiency and improvement programme!
This is followed by a SME club strategy meeting, then Tim Newns calls in to talk about the bid for the Green Investment Bid. Finally Colin Sinclair is in to present relocation options from Bruntwood.
Wednesday, a conference call with Mike Emmerich and Tim to further discussions on the Green Investment Bank. I hate conference calls but ME offers a high tech video link which makes all the difference.
Thursday, early start for a really good Board Meeting. First look at the budget for next year and agreement is reached to relocate, exactly where and into what size to be determined following final negotiations with landlords.
In the afternoon, an excellent meeting with Chris Salt from RBS sponsors of the SME club, – we outline the changes made and an acceleration of the marketing programme.
Friday, it is the Council meeting of the GM Chamber of Commerce. Martin Douglas is in the chair, MPs Kate Green and Simon Danczuk are present along with Baroness Hughes. Really good meeting with over 50 in attendance.
The week concludes with a meeting in City Hall, Sir Howard in the chair to discuss the Greater Manchester Growth Plan. Baron Frankal is liasing with the advisory group chaired by Jim O’Neil of Goldman Sachs. I offer to assist.
Saturday, working in the morning, the day starts as usual with tea, the FT, and the Economist app. Best clips from the Economist – Brain Gain, why the US should welcome Asian innovation and the John Lewis model – the feeling is mutual. Cute.
The Saturday Economist a weekly update of UK economics news – is published on this web site..
Afternoon, off to play tennis. The year continues with a further 6-4 setback followed by a 5-4 unfinished second set. Thinking of redacting this section in future posts..
Hope all is well with all. More news next week,
John
Margin Call was a great must see film rated 8 out of 10 – buy DVD rating. (It doesn’t get much better). Later off to see a film about a horse, a war horse.
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