Joe Grice Chief Economist of the ONS is beginning to sound like a sales director missing targets and clinging to any excuse of failure to get results. The second quarter figure had been hit April’s warm weather, the extra bank holiday and the Japanese Tsunami. Joe has previously said, in the final quarter of 2010, there was too much snow and in the first quarter 2011 not enough snow. Thank heavens it didn’t snow on the day of the Royal Wedding. More BS logic but David Smith bought in!
According to the ONS in Q4 there was too much snow, in January not enough snow, April was too warm and the bank holidays and the Royal Wedding hit the growth figures in the second quarter. Heaven knows what would have happened to GDP if it had snowed on the day of the Royal Wedding.
I had two exciting group meetings this week. The board meeting on Thursday and the second e team meeting on Friday. Paul Lupton is the new chair of pro.manchester. Evidence of a new style appeared at the AGM when the Chairman instructed delegates, when passing the second resolution, to raise their hands, dispensing with the more conventional, all those in favor, prefix. It was a good board meeting, all over in an hour. The sponsorship of SME club by RBS was approved and the board commissioned the new events board project. Excellent. Paul is one of those, no time for autocracy, leaders.
Household goods store volumes were down by 3.7% but non store retail sales particularly on line internet sales were up by 24%. Retail is facing a “disruptive” challenge from the swing to more “clicks than bricks” in consumer buying patterns. Internet retail sales volumes accounted 9.9% of all transactions compared to 6.8% in June last year.
Next week the GDP estimates for the second quarter will be released. They will make dismal reading with growth year on year likely to be less than 1%. The economy is slowing, the public finances are not recovering as planned, essential imports continue, there is no net export growth, no march of the makers, no rebalancing of the economy, we are a few steps further away from the brink of bankruptcy but the precipice is still in sight.
@GMTweetmap. This is the list which ranks the most influential twitterers in the Manchester. Not without some flaws since I appear to be ranked at #160. The list is changing all the time thanks to a real time scrape from Nick the geek alias Nick McCloud from Descartes and a nice design from Richard Hudson at Vanilla Storm.
If you think you are hot in social media, you have to share this. It’s twirlr
Friday a few meetings and a chance to blog on economics. Florence Nightingale would say of hospitals, the first requirement is they should do the sick no harm. The same should be demanded of economists in relation to the economy. There is something horrible in the claimant count figures for June, the Q2 GDP estimate due shortly is going to look terribly weak. The trade figures for May confirm the march of the makers is failing to rebalance the economy towards net trade growth. No surprise there. In other news, CPI inflation fell slightly but CPI-MK the MPC favored indicator was on track at 2%.
The rate of UK inflation fell from 4.5% in May to 4.2% in June according to latest ONS data. Despite a significant rise in food prices and transport costs.
Florence Nightingale would say of hospitals, the first requirement is they should do the sick no harm. The same should be demanded of economists in relation to the economy. The trade situation is not getting any better. This May trade figures are a further blow to lovers of devaluation and the J curve everywhere.