Nationwide – house prices down 15% in April – no green shoots Posted on April 30, 2009 by John Ashcroft According to the latest information from Nationwide, house prices fell by 15% year on year in April. The average house price was £151,861. Given the weakness of the economy and the expected further increase in unemployment no “swift turn round” … Read More
UK LIBOR spreads narrow as Gilt yields rise – is this the Gilt strike? Posted on April 29, 2009 by John Ashcroft UK base rates appear set to remain at 50 basis points for the foreseeable future despite the Taylor rule model requiring an impossible further reduction of 2%. The three month London Inter bank rate has eased back to 1.4% from … Read More
UK – interest rates should be cut by a further 2% Posted on April 28, 2009 by John Ashcroft The ideal interest rate for the US economy in current conditions would be minus 5 per cent according to internal analysis prepared for the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting. The analysis was based on the “Taylor rule” which formulates the … Read More
UK Retail sales in March up 1.5%, is there a VAT effect? Posted on April 28, 2009 by John Ashcroft Retail sales volumes in March were up by 1.5% compared to prior year according to the ONS data and in value terms sales in the month were up by 1.6%. Food sales volumes were ahead by 1.3% but non food … Read More
UK GDP down 4.2% in first quarter 2009 Posted on April 25, 2009 by John Ashcroft UK GDP was down by 4.2% in the first quarter of 2009 compared to prior year and down by 1.9% compared to prior three month. In the final quarter of 2008, the economy contracted by 2% compared to Q4 2007. Presenting … Read More
Treasury forecasts – recession – it will all be over by Christmas Posted on April 23, 2009 by John Ashcroft The lights may be going out all over Europe, according to the IMF but as for the UK recession, it will all be over by Christmas, according to the Treasury. The Chancellor predicted the economy would shrink by 3.5 pc … Read More
UK Unemployment in March lower than expected Posted on April 22, 2009 by John Ashcroft The March unemployment figures were lower than we had expected, this together with additional revisions over the past twelve months would suggest the job outlook could slightly better than we had forecast last month but not much. In the first … Read More
RICS Housing Survey – signs of improvement or clutching at green shoots Posted on April 21, 2009 by John Ashcroft According to the latest housing market survey (March) the RICS reported “further signs of improvement in activity indicators” but it really is a struggle to see much of an improvement. "The seasonally adjusted net balance of surveyors reporting falling rather … Read More
CBI forecast – green shoots in the foot Posted on April 21, 2009 by John Ashcroft According to the CBI headline and press release, the worst of the recession may be past. “The UK recession deepened more than expected in the first three months of this year, but this should prove to have been the worst … Read More
CPI inflation above target in March – so this is deflation? Posted on April 21, 2009 by John Ashcroft CPI inflation slowed by 2.9% per cent in March, from 3.2 per cent in February. RPIX inflation – the all items RPI excluding mortgage interest payments – was 2.2 per cent from 2.5 per cent. It is worth remembering that … Read More
