Mary Poppins and the UK banking crisis Posted on November 29, 2008 by John Ashcroft It had never occurred to me the Wizard of Oz was an allegory for the US depression of the 1930’s. The yellow brick road a reference to the Gold Standard, the scarecrow representative of plight of the US farmers and … Read More
UK Libor spread falls to 98 basis points Posted on November 28, 2008 by John Ashcroft UK Libor – base rate spreads narrowed to 98 basis points this week, the lowest levels since late September and below the peak of 180 basis points, mid October. Libor is a measure of liquidity in the system rather than … Read More
UK economy falls by 0.5% in the third quarter Posted on November 27, 2008 by John Ashcroft Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2008, compared to flat growth of 0.0 per cent in the previous quarter. The level of GDP is now 0.3 per cent higher than the third … Read More
UK retail sales – carnage in the high street Posted on November 27, 2008 by John Ashcroft It’s carnage in the high street as MFI and Woolworths are placed into administration. The collapse of Woolworths could lead to a "price war" as the administrators slash prices to generate cash.. Twenty thousand jobs could be put at risk … Read More
UK Investment – set for a long slow down Posted on November 25, 2008 by John Ashcroft Investment, UK set for a long slow down. In the second quarter of 2008, Investment defined as gross fixed capital formation fell by 2.1% after a first quarter increase of 0.27%. In our graphic we compare the previous two recession … Read More
Governor warns banks must lend, Treasury is warned they can’t Posted on November 25, 2008 by John Ashcroft Mervyn King has warned the UK economy will experience a protracted downturn if the commercial banks don't resume normal lending level. Blimey, it was only yesterday, the Chancellor said we were going to have a short recession and a quick … Read More
UK housing – Net New mortgage lending to fall in 2009. Posted on November 25, 2008 by John Ashcroft Net new mortgage lending is likely to fall to less than zero next year, according to a report commissioned by the Treasury from Sir James Crosby, the former chief executive of HBOS, owner of the Halifax. Sir James is warning … Read More
Pre Budget report – VAT cuts and consumer spending Posted on November 25, 2008 by John Ashcroft “To deliver a much-needed extra injection of spending into the economy right now. I therefore propose to cut VAT from 17.5 to 15 per cent until the end of next year.” So spoke Chancellor Darling in the Pre Budget Report. … Read More
Chancellor Darling gives the UK a V shaped recession Posted on November 24, 2008 by John Ashcroft The down turn will be quickly reversed, it's going to be a V shaped recession according to Chancellor Darling and the November pre budget report. The fiscal stimulus will cost £20 billion this year and next. VAT reduction means a … Read More
Where next for oil prices? The speculative bubble map. Posted on November 23, 2008 by John Ashcroft Oil prices Brent Crude basis were trading at just under $150 per barrel in July. Any number of explanations were put forward as the market peaked. Concerns over supply as the Middle East tensions were enhanced, Israel attacking Hezbollah, the … Read More
