Prospect magazine ranks Nouriel Roubini as Top Public Intellectual Posted on December 31, 2008 by John Ashcroft Earlier this year Prospect teamed up with Foreign Policy to list the world’s 100 greatest living public intellectuals. The panel were instructed to measure on three criteria: novelty, real-world impact, and intellectual pizzazz. Here we list the top three including … Read More
UK Winter surge of redundancies predicted Posted on December 30, 2008 by John Ashcroft Next year will be the worst for jobs for almost 20 years, with a net reduction of at least 600,000 people in employment. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) is predicting a "winter surge" of redundancies in the … Read More
First the Germans then the Church, now the Austrians attack Posted on December 30, 2008 by John Ashcroft I like Peter Schiff and enjoy the occasional visit to Europacific. Peter Schiff is a supporter of the Austrian school of economics. The Austrian school is predominantly laissez-faire with a belief in the self correcting mechanism of market excess. In … Read More
Economic Model accuracy and the Tiger Woods PGA Tour Posted on December 29, 2008 by John Ashcroft Writing the post on economic forecast accuracy in 2008 brought to mind the early stages of the UK computer modelling process. It was in 1966 Jim Ball and Terry Burns at the London Business School devised the first computer model … Read More
UK household incomes fall by 3.4% in 2008 Posted on December 29, 2008 by John Ashcroft Latest Bank of England estimate for Housing Equity Withdrawal (2008 Q3) is minus £5.7 billion. As a proportion of household income, the Quarter 3 figure is minus 2.4%, the lowest figure ever recorded. The squeeze on household incomes is manifest … Read More
Economic Forecasters fail the test in 2008 Posted on December 29, 2008 by John Ashcroft David Smith suggests the chaos of 2008 caused havoc with the predictions of economists for the UK economy in 2008. The credit crunch and commodity prices wrong footed most analysts. “Any forecaster getting it right in 2008 would have required … Read More
UK banks face £70bn loss on commercial property Posted on December 29, 2008 by John Ashcroft UK banks face up to £70bn of losses on commercial property loans. This could result in a further round of taxpayer bail-outs according to investment bank Close Brothers. The bank forecasts a 50pc-60pc slump in commercial property values by the … Read More
UK GDP latest release doesn’t change the outlook for 2009 Posted on December 23, 2008 by John Ashcroft Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.6 per cent in the third quarter of 2008, revised down from the previous estimate of 0.5 per cent. The level of GDP in the third quarter of 2008 was 0.3 per cent higher … Read More
Bank Lending – to fall over next two years says Barclay Chief Posted on December 20, 2008 by John Ashcroft Consumers and companies will continue to find it difficult to access credit for the next one to two years, the boss of Barclays bank has said. Talking to the BBC's Business Editor Robert Peston, Mr Varley stressed that the banks … Read More
Guide to Planet ZIRP : Bernanke submits a chapter Posted on December 19, 2008 by John Ashcroft "Welcome to planet ZIRP. Unfortunately, we do not have a handbook, or fully understand the terrain. Our process of quantative easing, the plan to helicopter money may work but as a fire fighting option, it may be like dropping water … Read More
